ORCHARD PARK — In case you were wondering how much quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is perceived to mean to the Miami Dolphins, the early point spreads — yes, plural — would certainly reflect that it’s a sizable one.
One gambling site decided on Sunday night that once the Dolphins finished off their hideous 11-6 victory over the Jets and the Buffalo Bills defeated the Patriots to finalize their AFC wild-card matchup, it would post point spreads based on which Miami quarterback might be playing in the game.
If Tagovailoa, who has missed the last two games while in the NFL’s concussion protocol, emerges this week and is able to play, the Dolphins are listed as 7-point underdogs.
If he can’t play, and backup Teddy Bridewater is recovered enough from the broken thumb he suffered in Week 17 at New England to start, the Dolphins are 10-point underdogs.
And if neither can play and the Dolphins have to go with rookie Skylar Thompson, the spread balloons to 14 points.
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It’s quite a situation the Dolphins find themselves in as they get ready to play their first playoff game since 2016, just their third since 2002, and one where they will be trying to win for the first time since 2000, which is the longest postseason winless drought among AFC teams.
“We definitely love Tua,” Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill told reporters in Miami Sunday after beating the Jets. “The last time we played against the Bills, Tua put up a real good showing. So, just to have him out there — another captain, another leader — would be great.”
Tagovailoa did indeed play well in Buffalo on a cold, snowy night. It took a fourth-quarter rally for the Bills to win 32-29 as Tagovailoa completed 17 of 30 passes for 234 yards and two TDs.
There is no doubt the Dolphins offense is markedly better with Tagovailoa at the helm. This season, in games he was able to start and finish, Miami was 8-3 and he threw 24 TD passes compared to just four interceptions. He suffered officially documented concussions and had to leave two games the Dolphins eventually lost, Week 4 at Cincinnati and Week 16 at home against the Packers.
Sunday’s win over the Jets was the first game this year the Dolphins won with Tagovailoa sitting out the entire way. They had been 0-3. Of course, they won, not because Thompson played well — he passed for just 152 yards — but because the Miami defense had its way with New York’s third-string QB, Joe Flacco, limiting the Jets to 187 total yards and two field goals.
With Tagovailoa, the Miami passing game was ultra dangerous, led by Hill who finished with 119 catches for 1,710 yards (both totals were second in the NFL behind only Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson) and seven TDs. Jaylen Waddle tacked on 75 receptions for 1,356 yards and eight scores.
Among QBs who started at least half their teams’ games, Tagovailoa led the NFL with a passer rating of 105.5, barely edging out Patrick Mahomes (105.2). Buffalo’s Josh Allen was eighth at 96.6.
The dropoff from Tagovailoa to Bridgewater is sizable, and then down to Thompson, a rookie seventh-round pick from Kansas State, it’s massive. So, all eyes will be laser-focused on what happens at Dolphins practice this week and whether Tagovailoa is participating in any way.
“We’ll continue to take it day by day, and I will not even think about any sort of game, whether that’s this year or next year, until he’s fully ready to do so,” coach Mike McDaniel said Sunday.
“And that comes with medical clearance. Once it was articulated to me that it doesn’t help Tua in any shape or form if I project any sort of things besides, ‘Hey, what are we doing today and what are we doing to get better today?’ I haven’t even thought about it.”
Top players for Miami Dolphins on offense, defense
▶ RB Raheem Mostert: He finished with 891 rushing yards, and 101 of that came in the first quarter of the game in Buffalo Dec. 17. Mostert is a speed back who can make explosive plays, but the Dolphins have been so pass heavy when Tagovailoa has played that Mostert probably hasn’t had enough opportunities (181 carries). However, he suffered a broken thumb against New York and his status is very much in the air. If he can’t play, the run game burden falls to the very capable Jeff Wilson Jr.
▶ WR Tyreek Hill: As great as his season was, the Bills actually did a decent job on him as he managed only 11 catches for 102 yards and a TD. In the last two games of the season which Tagovailoa missed, he caught only six passes for 78 yards.
▶ WR Jaylen Waddle: He was the player who hurt the Bills most as he caught only seven passes but they went for 216 yards with one TD. Given the upheaval in the Bills’ secondary, these two WRs remain a problem, especially if Tagovailoa plays.
▶ DT Christian Wilkins: He’s one of the best in the league, plain and simple. He was in on 98 tackles, which is unbelievable for a DT, and he had 3.5 sacks. Ten of his tackles came against Buffalo, and in the second game, he also forced and recovered a fumble. He’s a big reason why Miami ranks tied for fourth in the NFL in fewest yards per rush attempt (4.1).
▶ DE Jaelen Phillips: Miami’s best pass rusher as he led the team with seven sacks, but also created plenty of chaos as he had 70 total pressures. He had a sack and a forced fumble in the Dec. 17 game.
▶ LB Bradley Chubb: Since coming to Miami at the trade deadline, he’s actually been pretty disappointing. He has 2.5 sacks in eight games, and none have come in the last four. Still, Chubb is a talented player who could break out at any time.
▶ LB Elandon Roberts: He led the Dolphins with 107 tackles and also had 4.5 sacks.
▶ CB Kader Kohou: The undrafted rookie has been a big surprise this season as he started 13 of 15 games and had a pick, a forced fumble, 72 tackles, and allowed a completion percentage into his coverage of 65.1 on a team-high 106 targets.
▶ CB Xavien Howard: Still the Dolphins’ best CB, though he didn’t have his best season as he allowed a 121.1 passer rating into his coverage area. He had a team-high 12 pass breakups but made only one interception.
▶ S Jevon Holland: A tough, physical player who was in on 96 tackles and had 1.5 sacks in the first game against the Bills.
What time does the Bills vs. Dolphins game start?
Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. Sunday.
How to watch Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins game on TV, streaming
Cable/Network: CBS. The game will be available locally via the following stations: WROC (Channel 8, Rochester), WIVB (Buffalo area), WTVH (Syracuse area), WKTV (Utica area), WENY (Elmira area), WRGB (Albany area), and WBNG (Binghamton area).
Online streaming services: NFL.com and the NFL mobile app. Also, the NFL has a streaming service called NFL+ which replaces NFL Game Pass, though you can’t cast the games to your TV — you must watch on your phone or tablet. The cost is $5 a month or $30 for the season, and a premium tier costs $10/$80 which includes all-22 coaches film and condensed and full-game replays. With it, you’ll be able to watch every local game on Sunday and the national games on Monday and Thursday nights as well as the playoffs and the Super Bowl. You can also stream if you have subscriptions to DirecTV, fuboTV, NFL+, Sling, Vidgo, Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV, and Paramount+.
On the radio: How to listen to the Bills vs. Dolphins game
The Bills Radio Network has stations all across the state. They include:
Rochester (WCMF 96.5 and WROC 950 AM)Buffalo (WGR550, 550 AM)Syracuse (WTKW 99.5/WTKV 105.5)Binghamton (WDRE 100.5FM)Ithaca (WIII 99.9/100.3 FM)Bath (WVIN 98.3 FM)Newark (WACK 1420 AM)Dansville (WDNY 93.9 FM)Elmira (WNGZ 1490 AM)Auburn (WAUB 98.1 FM/1590 AM)Geneva (WGVA 95.9 FM, 1240 AM)
Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana. To subscribe to Sal’s new twice-a-week newsletter, Bills Blast, please follow this link: profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast
