Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll
As President Joe Biden’s job approval rating continues to climb and he remains far and away Democrats’ preferred candidate for 2024, the latest national University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll has found that six in 10 respondents support setting an upper age limit for presidents.
The poll of 1,000 respondents conducted Jan. 5-9 found Biden’s net job approval rating now stands at 44-51 as he approaches his second anniversary in office, up from 38-55 last May and 40-52 this past October.
“In the aftermath of a better-than-expected performance by the Democratic Party in the 2022 midterm, historically low levels of unemployment and a decrease in inflation rates, some speculated that this wave of positive political and economic news would lead to a dramatic increase in President Biden’s approval ratings,” says Tatishe Nteta, provost professor of political science at UMass Amherst and director of the poll. “While the president did enjoy a bump in approval, particularly among young people, independents, working-class Americans and college-educated Americans, a majority of the public still expresses negative views of the job that the president is doing. As President Biden contemplates a run for the White House in 2024, he and his supporters are hoping that the upswing in approval is but a harbinger of things to come.”
While Biden’s overall ratings on his handling of economic issues also increased, they still lag well behind his overall approval numbers.
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“For those who wonder why President Biden’s approval ratings are still under water, look no further than the public’s assessments of his handling of the economy, taxes and inflation,” Nteta says. “Large swaths of the public remain skeptical of Biden’s leadership of the American economy as majorities of Americans believe that Biden has handled the economy (51%) and taxes (52%) poorly and a plurality (48%) assess Biden’s work on inflation in a negative light. If Biden is to ward off criticism and challenges from both within his party as well as from Republicans, he will need to continue to work to right the nation’s economic ship or he may find himself on the list of one-term presidents.”
However, Raymond La Raja, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll, says Biden should be encouraged by the responses of the poll’s youngest respondents.
“Young people have opened a new page on Biden,” La Raja says. “In less than two years, support for the president from those 18-29 years old has gone way up – 54% of young people approve of him compared to just 32% a year and half ago. No other group has changed this much. Perhaps it is the efforts to fix college loans or that the job market feels good for them, but whatever he’s doing they appear to like it.”
La Raja also points to how the poll’s respondents replied regarding whether the president has met the expectations they had for him when he assumed the nation’s highest office two years ago.
“Unrealistic expectations about what presidents can do tends to create disappointed voters a few years into a presidency,” he says, “so not surprisingly we see many voters saying Biden has fallen short of expectations. However, these hard numbers are softening somewhat. Over a year ago 55% said Biden had fallen short of expectations, but that figure has dipped to 48% as a majority (52%) now say that he has met or exceeded their expectations. The reality of partisan polarization means that few Republicans will give him positive reviews while Democrats will never completely abandon him.”
“Since taking office, President Biden has led the charge in vaccinating millions of Americans against COVID-19, passed the largest infrastructure bill since the New Deal, sought to forgive millions in student loan debt and increased funding for health care and climate protection,” Nteta says. “For some, the first two years of Biden’s presidency will be remembered as among the most successful in the nation’s history. However, in the face of these many accomplishments, close to half of the public (49%) believes that it would be better for the nation if Biden did not seek reelection in 2024 and this is particularly and unsurprisingly pronounced among Republicans. In an era of rife partisan polarization, it is likely that there is nothing that Biden could have done in his first two years that would change Republican views of his presidency and his impact on the nation’s well-being.”
Regardless of his current approval ratings, Biden clearly remains the preferred candidate among Democrats for 2024 with 31% of the poll’s respondents naming him as their first choice when given the option to rank their top three preferences. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders remains the president’s closest competition, with 14% support, while Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg follows with 11% support. Vice President Kamala Harris is the preferred candidate for just 8% of the 442 Democrats surveyed.
“The 2024 field of potential Democratic presidential candidates is a story of stability,” Nteta says. “With the field of Republican presidential candidates beginning to take shape and the president promising that he will announce whether he will seek a second term in office, Biden remains far and away the first preference of Democrats in the 2024 Democratic presidential primary. The 2024 nomination is Biden’s to lose, but if he decides against seeking a second term, then his vice president, Kamala Harris, is poised to face a hotly contested race for the party’s nomination.”
An Age Limit for Presidents?
For the first time, the UMass Amherst Poll also asked respondents whether they would support a constitutional amendment to set an upper age limit on the presidency, and if so, what that age should be.
“A strong majority – 59% – favors inserting a clause in the Constitution adding a maximum age limit for the presidency on top of the minimum age requirement of 35,” La Raja says. “On average voters peg this age at 67. That means that Ronald Reagan, who was 69 when he became president would have been disqualified from running for office if Americans got this change.”
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