When power to raise the debt limit is divided between Democrats and Republicans, getting to an agreement can be tedious. But the arc of the story in recent years has followed a predictable script.
The Congressional Research Service has put together a complete review of debt limit “crises,” beginning with the one in 2011, which did much to divide our politics. As with the current situation, a Democratic president in 2011 faced a newly elected House of Representatives under Republican control while the Senate was run by the Democrats. The result was that, after much posturing and long negotiation, on Aug. 2, 2011, President Barack Obama signed the Budget Control Act. The BCA set caps on discretionary spending and threatened politically painful “sequestration” of federal funds if deficit-reduction targets were not met.
A half-dozen other such “crises” have occurred since. Raising the debt limit is never really in question, but the party holding the White House begins negotiations in a vulnerable position. Markets often get jittery during these showdowns, and presidential approval ratings suffer. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen tried to get in front of this problem by expressing her worries about the debt limit last week — a sort of appeal to the legacy media to protect the administration from blame.
Congressional Republicans will triumph if they can agree on a few reasonable demands; make those demands specific, understandable and public; then repeat the demands again and again on every television set and over every radio show and podcast. This is about messaging. Any set of compelling and well-articulated demands from the GOP will create pressure on the administration to fold.
These showdowns come down to a contest of credibility. Voters punish the party that seems to be playing games, risking America’s credit and the markets that rely on it. With a tiny majority in the House and a minority in the Senate, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.)will have their hands full finding unanimity around a small list of popular demands.
But without a shared set of reasonable demands, Republicans will appear confused and divided, and after weeks of massive media pummeling, the GOP will likely give in. “What’s the ask?” is the key question for Republicans right now.
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) argues that the debt-ceiling legislation traditionally includes measures to control spending. The “sequestration” of the 2011 BCA is widely regarded as having been a disaster for Pentagon preparedness and national security, so a replay of that is off the table. But a rollback of nondefense discretionary spending to pre-pandemic levels? That makes sense.
Rep. Chip Roy (R-Tex.), a leading debt hawk, would go further and give the Pentagon a budget haircut as well, rolling defense spending back to 2019 levels. GOP defense hawks will not agree. They think it is 1938 again, with mortal threats rising in Europe and Asia. They won’t budge.
So what can the GOP ask for, if not a new sequestration? Along with Cotton’s proposal, the party can insist on undoing the authorization and first appropriation for about 87,000 new IRS staff over the next decade. The idea that the economy will grow through better, faster, bigger tax collections is absurd. The GOP could also argue that the debt limit will continue to rise until the flood of migrants into the country ebbs, pointing to the quite obvious costs of uncontrolled migration. Saying that the debt limit won’t go up until the border wall goes up is concise, catchy and compelling, and would focus the country on the border crisis. (A genuine “crisis.”) Defunding NPR and PBS would excite the base — the first cut should be the least necessary thing the federal government pays for. In this age of a thousand media outlets, no one needs a government subsidy.
For the sake of clarity, Republican priorities should be limited to a list of three items of fewer. Lay them on the table for the public to see. Hammer them relentlessly, until every swing voter can recite the list by heart. If that moment comes, all the pressure to make a deal will shift to Biden and Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.). Will they risk the full faith and credit of the United States because they want a bigger IRS and a porous southern border?
The specifics matter less than the timing for Republicans. The party’s difficulty in choosing a speaker of the House has seeded questions about GOP efficiency in the public mind. Moving quickly to formulate a unified plan for the debt showdown will do much to put those doubts to rest.
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