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Sen. Rick Scott (R., Fla.) listens during a news conference at the U.S. Capitol Building on Jan. 25. A majority of independent voters say the Biden administration has pushed too much spending in the past two years, Mark Penn writes.
Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
About the author: Mark Penn is chairman and CEO of Stagwell, a technology-based global marketing services firm. He has advised presidents of both parties.
The latest battle over the debt ceiling is different from the rest. The U.S. has about six months before it faces true default. Surprisingly it’s the first time Americans are siding with the Republicans on the issue.
Debt-ceiling showdowns are always games of chicken, and this time voters want Democrats to blink first. Seven in ten voters agree that a default would be a “huge issue,” according to the January 2023 Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll. But when told the size of the national debt, $31 trillion, 63% of voters pick the Republican position—raise the ceiling only with federal spending caps—over the Democratic position of no negotiation. A similar amount, 61%, want Democrats to cave to prevent a default—including a slim majority of Democrats themselves.
Typically the GOP loses government shutdown fights. Americans have blamed the Republicans for every major showdown since the 1990s. Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama both emerged from their battles with higher approval ratings. But President Joe Biden may break the pattern.
In past crises the GOP’s image suffered because they looked like they were holding the government hostage for political purposes. In 2011, Americans thought Republicans didn’t compromise enough and the extremist Tea Party had too much influence. During the longest government shutdown ever, from December 2018 to January 2019, Americans blamed President Donald Trump and the Republicans for holding out on immigration budgeting. Border wall funding wasn’t worth a government shutdown, according to 71% of voters.
This time Americans see the Republicans backing a worthy cause. They think spending really has gotten out of control, especially after the pandemic. The national debt is even bigger than they thought—only one-third of Americans knew it was over $25 trillion.
The biggest warning sign for Democrats is with swing voters. Independents are siding with Republicans on spending controls, unlike in the midterms when they turned out for the Democrats. More than half of independents, 57%, say the Biden administration has pushed too much spending over the past two years. An even larger group, 73%, think the Democrats should negotiate with the Republicans now.
There’s still ample time for Democrats to pull out a win. They should come to the table and fight for what Americans across the political spectrum want: a balanced budget. Since Clinton balanced four budgets in a row no president has managed to get close despite the idea’s consistent popularity. In the January poll, a plurality of Americans from each party wanted a debt-ceiling deal to prioritize gradual spending cuts that lead to balanced budgets in the next 5-10 years. 65% of Americans think spending limits will help the U.S. government overall. Both parties actually have a golden opportunity here to get the credit for both averting a debt crisis and achieve long-term spending reform.
Joe Manchin, not Joe Biden, is pushing the right idea—the Democrats should negotiate. Manchin said the most drastic cuts proposed by Republicans won’t happen, but has pushed for a bipartisan committee on entitlement reform and wants to focus on eliminating waste, fraud, and abuse.
The Manchin strategy is promising: make a deal on areas of bipartisan consensus while hammering Republicans on their most out-of-touch proposed cuts. If House Republicans want to go after Social Security or Medicare, let them pick that losing battle. The vast majority of Americans, including 88% percent of Republicans, support legislation that secures Social Security in the near future. Even Trump just warned the GOP not to vote for defunding Social Security or Medicare. By pushing for a deal around more popular spending cuts, the Democrats can look like the more reasonable party and win back the American people.
But the old playbook won’t work for the Democrats this time. Americans want checks on federal spending, and so far only the GOP is speaking up for them. If Democrats don’t come to the table, Republicans could win the battle of public opinion around a debt crisis for the first time.
Guest commentaries like this one are written by authors outside the Barron’s and MarketWatch newsroom. They reflect the perspective and opinions of the authors. Submit commentary proposals and other feedback to ideas@barrons.com.
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